SurveyUSA (8/16-18, likely voters, 6/21-23 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38 (45)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 52 (50)
Andy Horning (L): 3 (-)
Christopher Stried (I): 3 (-)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Tough numbers for Long Thompson. Indeed, the Pollster composite for this race is getting really ugly — yet another reason why Obama cannot afford to tap Evan Bayh as his running mate.
Bonus finding: John McCain, on the upswing as of late, has pulled ahead to a five-point lead in Indiana. Obama posted a single point lead here in June.
This is a poll ive been looking for. Long Thompson has got no support from any politicians in the state and has no shot without some serious help. Evan Bayh may get rejected as a VP because of the ineptitude of the Indiana Democrat Party to nominate Jim Schellinger. Sad, sad, poll for democrats as this could and should be the reverse.
And he vacants his seat, and Jill Long Thompson somehow becomes Governor on November. Does she get the right to appoint his successor, or does Mitch Daniels do that before he leaves office (should he lose).
Of course, all this is irrelevant since Obama looks like he’s leaning towards Tim Kaine, and Daniels is kicking Jill’s butt right now.
+2 Dem ID to -6 Dem ID in the Indiana poll. That is an 8 point swing and Obama dropped by 6%. While the latter poll might be more accurate (and disappointing) this is not a Obama drop more than a change in voter composition.
I’ve seen a few quibbles with this poll’s numbers today. First, they’ve apparently increased the number of likely voters who are R, ignoring the big registration drives that the Obama folks have been doing all over the state. Apparently, they’re also understating the African-American numbers as well.
That said, the crosstabs don’t look good for JLT. She’s trailing among women and in every single age group, and doesn’t seem to have found any natural constituencies. And the fact that 23% of Dems are breakin for Daniels is not good, either.